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Economic News

USD – Dollar Rises to a 1 Week High vs. the EUR

The U.S currency was near a one-week high against the EUR as a report showed that manufacturing in the Philadelphia region expanded in March at the fastest pace this year. The improved U.S. economic outlook and very modest policy tightening outlook continue to highlight the U.S.’s relative economic growth, providing support for the U.S currency.

The currency was also bolstered as economists said the Federal Reserve may raise the discount rate, charged on direct loans to banks, before the start of the next two-day meeting on April 27.

The greenback also got a boost versus the EUR Thursday after a spokeswoman for the International Monetary Fund said Greece hadn’t approached the IMF for financing, prompting some USD buying.

EUR – EUR Down to 17-mth low vs. Swiss franc on SNB comments

The EUR stabilized but remained under pressure on Friday on renewed concern about Greece after Athens said it may not be able to achieve its promised deficit cuts if its borrowing costs remain so high. The European currency was set for its biggest weekly loss since the start of February on concern Greece will fail to secure financial assistance from the European Union. The EUR declined to $1.3620 from $1.3735 and slipped 0.9% versus the Japanese currency to 122.95 yen.

The European single currency also hovered around a 17-month low against the Swiss franc after Swiss National Bank officials said on Thursday that Swiss firms and consumers should prepare for rising borrowing costs as interest rates cannot stay low forever. The EUR edged down 0.1% against the Swiss franc to 1.4390 after falling as far as 1.4355 francs Thursday,, its weakest level since October 2008.

The EUR remains on a downward trend as the market has been redirected to worries over Greece. Uncertainties over the prospects for a Greek debt bailout have not been wiped away, analysts said. As for today, without major economic events the market will likely be driven mostly by supply and demand. Near term support for the EUR is seen around $1.3500 as the currency stayed above that level last week.

JPY – Yen Gains as Uncertainty over Greece Persists

The Japanese yen gained broadly after investors found no new reason to sell the currency further after a flurry of media reports that the Bank of Japan is leaning towards monetary policy easing this week, prompting traders to trim short yen positions. The Yen inched up as investors locked in profits against the EUR due to a lack of progress on a financial aid package for debt-laden Greece. The currency rose to 123.80 per euro from 124.06 yesterday and 0.3% against the USD.

The JPY may fall to as low as 100 per U.S. dollar as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates faster than the Bank of Japan, according to analysts. The Fed may increase its benchmark as early as the fourth quarter while higher rates in Japan are still some time away, they said. The BOJ will not begin to increase rates until the latter half of the fiscal year, thus weakening the Yen as higher yields in the U.S. lure away investors.

OIL – Crude Declines on Firmer Dollar

Crude oil traded lower on Thursday, down 73 cents, or 0.9% as hesitations over European plans to help Greece pressured the EUR, lifted the U.S dollar and weighed on commodities.

Crude oil dropped for a 2nd day amid low fuel demand in the U.S., the world’s biggest energy consumer. The commodity’s price was slipping and as a firmer dollar damped the investment appeal of commodities. Oil traded around $82 a barrel after the dollar gained against the euro on speculation Greece may fail to secure financial assistance from the European Union. Adding pressure to Crude was a report showing seaborne oil exports by OPEC, excluding Angola and Ecuador, will rise by 70,000 barrels per day in the four weeks to April 3.

EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	AUD/USD	EUR/GBP
Daily Trend
Weekly Trend
Resistance	1.3711	1.5333	91.36	1.0661	0.9283	0.9002
	1.3680	1.5301	91.05	1.0632	0.9261	0.8981
	1.3652	1.5270	90.75	1.0600	0.9240	0.8960
Support	1.3589	1.5209	90.14	1.0538	0.9198	0.8919
	1.3557	1.5178	89.84	1.0509	0.9180	0.8899
	1.3526	1.5147	89.53	1.0480	0.9157	0.8877

Technical News

EUR/USD

The daily chart shows the price has made a significant downward move back inline with its long term downward trend. The breakout that began at the upper border of the Bollinger Band has crossed below the 20-day moving average line, indicating a price move to the lower Bollinger Band is possible. The MACD histogram is also sloping downwards, indicating strong momentum for the pair. Traders may want to go short with a price target of the lower Bollinger Band.

GBP/USD

The pair has made a move lower as the daily chart’s upward sloping trend line on the 7-day Relative Strength Indicator has been broken. However, the pair has stalled repeatedly at the support level of 1.5010. Traders should watch for a break below this support line and enter short with a price target of 1.4850.

USD/JPY

Traders can see from the daily chart’s Bollinger Bands that the pair has been consistently trading above the 20-day moving average for the past 2 weeks. This indicates a strong up trend. But the pair faces a staunch resistance line at the price of 90.80. Traders may want to wait for the price to rise to this resistance level and go short with a take profit level at the 20-day moving average line of the Bollinger Bands.

USD/CHF

While the pair is currently range trading between 1.0560 and 1.0590 and with most indicators floating in neutral territory, an upward correction may take place later today as the RSI on the daily chart is floating near the oversold territory, indicating an imminent upward movement. Going long for today may be advised.

The Wild Card

NZD/JPY

The pair may experience some downward correction today as the 8 hour and daily chart’s RSI is floating in the overbought territory, signaling an imminent downward movement. Forex traders may be advised to go short on the pair.

Economic News

USD – Dollar Up on Risk Aversion; Fed Funds Rate on Tap

The US Dollar surged versus the majority of its currency counterparts during yesterday’s trading. Against the EUR, the greenback reached towards 1.3640 up from yesterday opening price of 1.3775. A significant price shift in the market yesterday was also the sudden surge in the value of the Canadian Dollar (CAD) against the buck. The USD/CAD began to reach towards parity with a current price of 1.0185.

Two important economic indicators came in at levels unforeseen by economists yesterday. The TIC Long-Term Purchases report, which is a measure of investment in the local US market, was published significantly lower than was expected. Additionally, the NAHB Housing Market Index dropped this past month, highlighting weakness in the American housing sector.

Most investors would normally expect a sudden sell-off in USD, but the opposite in fact took place. The Dollar and Yen each shot up following the above reports due to a dramatic rise in risk aversion. US stocks plummeted following the news but the greenback has gained from risk flight.

These price movements also seem to have come at the start of a volatile trading week. Today’s release of the US Building Permits report could help verify whether yesterday’s NAHB report was accurate and give more direction for the strength of the local economy in the US. The Federal Reserve Board will also be publishing its decision on US short-term interest rates. The latest string of data from the United States suggests that a rate hike would be premature at this point, so investors shouldn’t expect much change from this event, but volatility, as always, should be anticipated.

EUR – EUR Facing Sell Pressure from Risk Flight

The EUR appears to have taken modest losses in yesterday’s trading. Starting with a high near 1.3775 versus the USD, the 16-nation single currency is now trading near the 1.3690 price level. The Euro has also taken similar losses against the Swiss Franc, and currently trades at 1.4505, down from 1.4550.

With a sharp reduction in domestic and foreign investment in the United States, and a decline in the US stock market, the USD and JPY appear to have made more than moderate gains against most of their rivals, and the EUR may be on the short end of the market as a result. The sudden return of risk aversion has the Euro-Zone currency bearing the brunt of this sell-off.

Should today’s releases of the ZEW Economic Sentiment reports come lower than forecasted, there is a strong chance the EUR will continue to face selling pressure, especially if the report from Germany, the Euro-Zone’s largest economy, fails to meet expectations. In other news, however, the US Federal Reserve Board is due to release their decision on short-term interest rates and although no major changes are expected, there is typically a lot of pressure built into the opening of the American market prior to this event.

JPY – Yen Sees Modest Gains; BOJ Concerned over European Spill-Over

The Yen appears to be on the winning side of a recent return of risk aversion in the forex market. US stocks dropped after less-than-stellar investment data was published in the US. However, the JPY did gain from a positive manufacturing report from New York. The USD/JPY currently trades at a 2-week low of 90.02, from yesterday’s opening price near 90.55.

No matter how much strength the Yen gained in recent trading, the truth remains that the JPY continues to trade within steady ranges against its primary crosses. The mixed movements of the EUR and CHF have resulted in somewhat volatile conditions for the Yen, but it seems to be to the advantage of Japan in both cases. The only concern the Bank of Japan (BOJ) seems to be carrying is regarding the status of Europe considering their recent debt woes. BOJ governors are rightfully concerned about spillover into East Asia, but no real effect has been priced in yet.

Crude Oil – Crude Falls on USD Surge and Market Uncertainty

The price of Crude Oil has begun to waver in light of economic uncertainty. The TIC Long-Term Purchases report published from the US yesterday helped shake business sentiment, and stocks are trading lower as a result. The surging US Dollar has helped to put a damper on oil prices, but few economists see prices dropping further. Demand concerns appear to have risen out of yesterday’s economic data.

On the upside, Crude Oil has failed to breach out of its range-trading pattern and many analysts are expecting a rebound in today’s trading. The Federal Reserve Board is due to release their decision on short-term interest rates, and other monetary policies, later today. In light of recent data, rates will not likely be raised, but a hawkish statement could help to return some of the risk which was pulled out of the market yesterday. Such a result would pull the USD back down and help spot Crude Oil prices rebound.

EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	AUD/USD	EUR/GBP
Daily Trend
Weekly Trend
Resistance	1.3770	1.5125	90.90	1.0680	0.9230	0.9175
	1.3750	1.5105	90.70	1.0660	0.9210	0.9155
	1.3720	1.5075	90.40	1.0630	0.9180	0.9125
Support	1.3660	1.5015	89.80	1.0570	0.9120	0.9065
	1.3630	1.4985	89.50	1.0540	0.9090	0.9035
	1.3610	1.4965	89.30	1.0520	0.9070	0.9015

Technical News

EUR/USD

While most of the pair’s indicators are floating in neutral territory, the hourly chart’s Slow Stochastic is exhibiting a fresh bearish cross while the RSI is floating in the overbought territory. Going short with tight stops might be advised for today.

GBP/USD

An upward correction may take place for the pair today as the 2 hour chart RSI is floating in the oversold territory and a bullish cross is evident on the 4 hour chart’s Slow Stochastic. Going long for the day may be a good option.

USD/JPY

The hourly and 2 hour charts’ RSI are floating in the oversold territory while a bullish cross is evident on the 2 hour and 4 hour charts’ Slow Stochastic. Furthermore, a breach of the lower Bollinger Band is evident on the 2 hour and 4 hour charts. Going long for the day may be advised.

USD/CHF

The pair may see an upward correction today as a bullish cross is evident on the hourly and daily charts’ Slow Stochastic, while the hourly and 8 hour charts’ RSI is floating in the oversold territory indicating an imminent upward movement. Going long for the day may be a good option.

The Wild Card

GBP/NZD

The pair’s hourly and 2 hour chart’s RSI is floating in the oversold territory with a bullish cross evident on the hourly, 2 hour and 4 hour charts’ Slow Stochastic. Furthermore, a breach of the lower Bollinger Band is evident on the hourly chart. Forex traders are advised to go long for the day

Economic News

USD – U.S. Interest Rate Announcement Expected Later On This Week

The Dollar saw mixed results against the major currencies during last week’s trading session. The Dollar dropped about 100 pips against the Euro, and the EUR/USD pair saw a weekly high at the rate of 1.3793. The Dollar saw volatile sessions against the Yen and the Pound, and the two pairs didn’t see a significant trend.

The Dollar failed to rise during last week’s trading as several economic indicators delivered worse than expected figures. The Federal Budget Balance reflected a 220.9B deficit in the government’s spending during February, failing to reach results for 207.5B deficit. The weekly Unemployment Claims showed that 462,000 individuals have filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week, failing to reach expectations for a 456,000 result. Currently it seems that even though the Dollar is generally strengthening, for as long that the economic data from the U.S. won’t show a recovery – the Dollar could drop on the short-term.

As for the week ahead, the main news event that is expected looks to be the Federal Funds Rate on Tuesday. The Federal Funds Rate is in fact the U.S. interest rates announcement for the next month. Current expectations are that the Fed will leave rates at their current low levels of less than 0.25%. However, if the Fed will surprise and hike rates, this has the potential to erase the Dollar’s losses from last week.

EUR – Greece Bailout Speculations to Boost the Euro

The Euro managed to erase some of its losses against the major currencies during last week’s trading. The Euro gained about 100 pips against the Dollar and the Pound, and rose close to 200 pips against the Yen, having the EUR/JPY reach above the 125.00 level.

The main reason for the Euro’s uptrend seems to be the speculations regarding the Greece rescue plan by the Euro-Zone. It is expected that the Euro-Zone finance ministers will agree on Monday on a mechanism for helping Greece financially. Such a plan, if will indeed be announced this week, has potential to boost the Euro further. Every publication of potential rescue plan has strengthened the Euro so far, and a final solution to the Greek debt crisis is likely to be received as a strong signal that the Euro-Zone has healthy economies that can aid Greece.

Looking ahead to this week, a batch of data is expected from the Euro-Zone. The main publication looks to be the German ZEW Economic Sentiment. This is a survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts that are asked to rate the next 6-month outlook for Germany. Traders should also keep close attention to any development regarding the Greece bailout plan. This seems to be the most urgent matter at the moment, and any publication on the subject is likely to create harsh volatility in the market.

JPY – The Yen Continues To Drop against the Majors

The Yen continued to drop against most of the major currencies during last week. The Yen saw a relatively peaceful session against the Dollar, yet it underwent a bearish trend vs. the Euro and the Pound.

Several economic publications from the Japanese economy have contributed to the Yen’s weakness during last week’s trading session. The Final Gross Domestic Product showed that value of all goods and services produced by the economy during the first quarter rose by merely 0.9%, failing to reach expectations for a 1.0% rise. In addition, the Core Machinery Orders, which measures the value of new private-sector purchase orders placed with manufacturers for machines, has dropped by 3.7% during January. Currently it seems that until a series of positive data will be published from the Japanese economy, the Yen might continue tumbling.

As for this week, the most interesting publication from the Japanese economy looks to be the Overnight Call Rate, which is in fact the Japanese interest rates announcement for the next month. Japan currently holds the lowest rates within the industrial world, and analysts have forecasted that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is likely to leave rates at their current low levels. However, if the BoJ will surprise and hike rates, this is likely to boost the Yen.

Oil – Will Crude Oil Drop Below $80 a Barrel?

Crude oil saw a relatively bullish session during the beginning of last week, and reached a weekly high of $83.05 a barrel. However, close to the weekend, crude oil dropped significantly and is currently traded around $80.80 a barrel.

The decline of crude oil seems to be the result of the drop in the U.S. Consumer Sentiment survey from Friday. The survey fell from 73.6 points on February to 72.5 on March, renewing concerns about energy demand in the world’s largest oil consumer. If the following data from the U.S. economy will continue to disappoint, it seems that crude oil might drop below $80 a barrel.

Looking ahead to this week, traders are advised to follow the main publications from the U.S and the Euro-Zone. Special attention should be given to the U.S. Interest Rate announcement on Tuesday and the Crude Oil Inventories report on Wednesday, as these seem to be the news events that will impact crude oil the most this week.

EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	AUD/USD	EUR/GBP
Daily Trend
Weekly Trend
Resistance	1.3837	1.5260	91.53	1.0690	0.9233	0.9154
	1.3807	1.5230	91.23	1.0660	0.9203	0.9124
	1.3777	1.5200	90.93	1.0630	0.9177	0.9094
Support	1.3711	1.5136	90.30	1.0566	0.9147	0.9064
	1.3681	1.5106	90.00	1.0636	0.9117	0.9034
	1.3651	1.5076	89.70	1.0606	0.9087	0.9004

Technical News

EUR/USD

The pair has been moving higher the past two weeks. However, this correction could be coming to an end and the bearish trend may resume. The recent price appreciation has failed to make a significant breach of the daily chart’s downward sloping trend line that began on December 3rd. The pair is currently being traded at the resistance level of 1.3790. Going short at a downward sloping trend line can be a great entry point into the market. A bearish cross has also formed on the Slow Stochastic Oscillator, providing another signal for a potential downward movement in the price.

GBP/USD

The Cable is showing signs for a continuation of the bearish trend. Currently the daily chart displays the Relative Strength Indicator floating in the oversold region, indicating the recent price appreciation may have gotten ahead of itself. It also appears that a bearish cross is forming on the chart’s Slow Stochastic Oscillator, indicating the potential for a downward price movement. Traders may want to be aggressive today by shorting the pair prior to the breakout and the continuation of the bearish trend.

USD/JPY

The daily chart shows very little technical resistance to the pair’s recent price rise. The 7-day Relative Strength Index has moved into the oversold level but is showing a sharp up trend, indicating the pair may have more momentum behind it to rise. The pair could continue to rise to its downward sloping trend line, close to the resistance level of 91.25. From there the pair could reverse direction and head lower in line with the long term downward trend.

USD/CHF

The sharp drop in the value of the cross may have gotten ahead of itself and could be due for a short term correction. The daily chart shows a bullish cross has formed on the pair’s Slow Stochastic Oscillator, indicating the potential for a rise in the price. The 7-day Relative Strength Index is also floating in the oversold zone, further strengthening the oversold theory. The price could correct today to the resistance level of 1.0645.

The Wild Card

Oil

Spot crude oil prices have fallen below the daily chart’s upward sloping trend line. The price move lower began at the resistance level of $83.05 and is approaching the 20-day moving average line of the Bollinger Bands. Forex and commodity traders may want to enter into the market with this downward momentum at their backs. An entry strategy may be to wait for the price to break the 20-day moving average line and go short, with a price target at the lower Bollinger Band line, near $78.50.

Economic News

USD – Dollar Down Slightly on Mixed U.S Data

The Dollar weakened slightly against the EUR yesterday after the release of mixed U.S. data and better than expected Chinese data. First time unemployment claims fell to a seasonally adjusted 462K, down from a revised 468K in the prior week; however, the result was higher than the expected 456K. Also released Thursday, the U.S. trade deficit shrank to $37.29 billion from $39.90 billion in December. Analysts had anticipated a slight increase.

The Dollar index which measures the U.S. unit against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies rose to 80.542 after the data, up from 80.484 late Wednesday.

Looking ahead to today, traders are advised to follow the release of the Retail Sales at 13:30 GMT and the Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment at 14:55 GMT. If the results are better than expected we might see a stronger Dollar going into next week.

EUR – Pound Gains on Higher Inflation Expectations

The EUR gained versus the Dollar on signs Greece’s deficit crisis has been contained. The EUR received a slight boost today from a better than expected Trade Deficit data. However, the EUR declined as investors learned the decline was due to a drop in both imports and exports. By late afternoon in New York, the EUR had strengthened to $1.3685 from $1.3651 late Wednesday and was at 123.88 Yen from 123.59 Yen.

The U.K. Pound strengthened versus the Dollar Thursday after the Bank of England’s quarterly inflation expectations survey showed the public expects annual inflation of 2.5%, up from 2.4% in the previous survey. The report helped boost the Pound slightly as it boosted investors’ expectations the BoE will start tightening monetary policy sooner that expected. The Pound pushed back above the $1.50 level to $1.5063 recently, up from $1.4964 late Wednesday.

While the major news today is expected from the U.S, investors should pay attention to the release of Euro-Zone Industrial Production data, due to be released at 10:00 GMT. Better than expected result may help strengthen the EUR further.

JPY – JPY Continues to Decline on Expectation of Further Monetary Easing

The Yen declined against 15 of its 16 major counterparts as U.S. stock gained and concerns over Greek debt eased, dampening demand for the safe heaven currency. The Yen is down ahead of the Bank of Japan’s Policy meeting next week on speculation the Bank of Japan will monetary easing steps as the world’s second-largest economy struggles with deflation. The Yen dropped to 124.09 per EUR from 123.82 in New York yesterday. Japan’s currency traded at 90.69 per dollar from 90.51.

OIL – Crude Remains Mainly Unchanged On Chinese, U.S data

Light, sweet crude for April delivery settled unchanged Thursday at $82.11 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange and is currently trading at $80.20. Oil Prices remained stagnant as data from China showed higher than expected inflation, prompting expectation the country could start tightening monetary policy and raise interest rates; a move that might dampen it demand for commodities. China is the biggest driver of global Oil demand growth. Positive Oil data reports from China and the U.S this week had sent oil over $83 a barrel Wednesday.

Looking ahead to today, investors should keep an eye for U.S data, as continued improvement in U.S economic conditions will likely provide further support to Oil prices.

EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	AUD/USD	EUR/GBP
Daily Trend
Weekly Trend
Resistance	1.3784	1.5158	91.52	1.0769	0.9225	0.9158
	1.3750	1.5126	91.21	1.0736	0.9202	0.9133
	1.3722	1.5095	90.90	1.0705	0.9181	0.9111
Support	1.3660	1.5035	90.29	1.0643	0.9139	0.9070
	1.3631	1.5004	89.98	1.0612	0.9118	0.9049
	1.3597	1.4962	89.63	1.0581	0.9097	0.9028

Technical News

EUR/USD

The pair has experienced a period of consolidation over the past three weeks, As such; the daily chart shows a triangle pattern has formed. The price has moved back up to the 1.3700 price level, approaching a significant downward sloping trend line that began on December 3rd. Traders may want to go short when the price arrives at the trend line. Selling near a downward sloping trend line is can be an excellent entry point into the market.

GBP/USD

The 4-hour chart presents a good selling opportunity. The price has failed to break the significant downward sloping trend line that began at the swing high on January 19th. The chart’s Slow Stochastic Oscillator shows a bearish cross has formed, indicating at a potential downward price movement. Aggressive traders may want to enter short now, while those that are more conservative may want to wait for 7-day RSI to breach below the 70 mark to provide further support of a downward price move.

USD/JPY

The recent upward correction the pair has made over the past 7 days may be coming to an end. The daily chart shows some technical resistance to the price move, so traders may want to begin to scale back any long positions they may have. The 7-day Relative Strength Indicator has breached below the 70 mark, indicating a sell signal. The price of the pair could rise until 91.25 and then reverse back down in the direction of the long term trend.

USD/CHF

The downward price trend for the pair is showing little technical resistance on the daily chart. The currency is trading well below the 10-day simple moving average and the 10-day Momentum indicator shows a steady downtrend. Traders may want to stay short on the pair until the support line of 1.0610.

The Wild Card

EUR/JPY

Yesterday the pair made a modest correction to the upward sloping price trend that began on February 25th. The price failed to breach this trend line, indicating the uptrend is still intact. The 7-day RSI has also maintained its rising trend line and continues to move higher. The pair could rise to its short term resistance level of 0.9150. Forex traders may want to be long on this pair as a breach of this price could propel the pair to its next resistance level of 0.9410.

Economic News

USD – Dollar Stuck in Downward Trend Ahead of Busy Trading Day

After taking some serious losses against several of its major counterparts in trading yesterday, the Dollar remains in its bearish cycle as investor risk appetite has returned. EUR/USD shot up over 50 pips yesterday before slightly retreating to its current level of 1.3635. GBP/USD made similar gains, increasing over 60 pips throughout the afternoon. The pair is currently trading at 1.4955. In overnight trading, the Yen continued to make gains on the greenback with the pair currently trading around the 90.28 level.

Analysts do not appear to be optimistic about the Dollar’s prospects in trading today. At 13:30 GMT, both the U.S. and Canadian trade balance figures are set to be released. While positive figures are forecasted for Canada, the U.S. will likely have a negative trade figure. If the predictions are true, traders can expect USD/CAD to go down in afternoon trading.

Also set to be released today are the weekly American unemployment figures. Analysts are cautiously optimistic regarding the current employment situation in the U.S., and they are currently forecasting a figure of around 456K. If true, this would signal a slight improvement over last week, and may lead to a slight Dollar rebound. Still, various Chinese indicators continue to stir risk appetite among investors. Forex traders will want to pay careful attention to their Dollar pairs as the day progresses.

EUR – Euro Attempts to Maintain Gains on Dollar and Yen

With risk taking apparently on the rise, the Euro is currently capitalizing on the global economic climate and maintaining its gains against its major rivals. The Euro was bullish throughout the day yesterday, and faired particularly well against the Yen. EUR/JPY, up over 100 pips from this time yesterday, is currently trading around the 123.19 level. Comments yesterday from European officials regarding Greece gave the impression that the current debt crisis may finally be coming to an end.

Today, there are no significant Euro news events. Still, that does not mean that Euro pairs will not see some activity in trading today. The British Consumer Inflation Expectation Report as well as the Swiss short-term interest rate report will likely lead to volatility for both the EUR/GBP and EUR/CHF pairs. Traders will want to pay particular attention to the Swiss report, as CHF has been performing fairly well against the Euro as of late.

JPY – Yen Takes Losses Following Bank Announcement

Following yesterday’s announcement that the Japanese central bank may ease monetary policy in the coming weeks, the Yen traded bearish against several of its counterparts throughout the day. USD/JPY moved up in afternoon trading before retreating slightly to its current level of 90.32. CHF/JPY shot up over 100 pips throughout the day yesterday before correcting itself. At this time, the pair is trading around the 84.35 level.

Today, the Yen will likely maintain its current course, especially as risk taking seems to be the predominant sentiment among investors. Still, if the negative forecasts regarding the U.S. Trade Balance Report prove true, JPY could make some gains in afternoon trading against the greenback.

Crude Oil – Oil Prices Fall as Stockpiles Remain High

Crude oil prices fell dramatically to their current level of $81.55, following OPEC’s announcement that it will continue to pump above its stated quota for the foreseeable future. The announcement caused Crude to fall, largely out of fears that supplies would remain high for the time being. Yesterday, prices rallied after U.S. crude inventories came in slightly lower then expected. The commodity was not able to maintain its bullish trend, and subsequently fell in evening and overnight trading.

Today, the price of crude will largely be determined by which way the Dollar moves. If USD is able to recoup some of its losses from yesterday, traders can expect oil prices to continue to fall. On the other hand, if the greenback continues to fall, crude may see an upward correction.

EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	AUD/USD	EUR/GBP
Daily Trend
Weekly Trend
Resistance	1.3725	1.5055	91.20	1.0785	0.9230	0.9190
	1.3705	1.5035	91.00	1.0765	0.9210	0.9170
	1.3675	1.5005	90.70	1.0735	0.9180	0.9140
Support	1.3615	1.4945	90.10	1.0675	0.9120	0.9080
	1.3585	1.4915	89.80	1.0645	0.9090	0.9050
	1.3565	1.4895	89.60	1.0625	0.9070	0.9030

Technical News

EUR/USD

The daily chart is showing mixed signals with its Slow Stochastic fluctuating at the neutral territory. However, the weekly Chart’s RSI is already floating in the oversold territory indicating that a bullish correction might take place in the nearest future. When the upward breach occurs, going long with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy.

GBP/USD

The price of this pair appears to be floating in the over-sold territory on the weekly chart’s RSI indicating an upward correction may be imminent. The upward direction on the daily chart’s Momentum oscillator also supports this notion. Going long with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy.

USD/JPY

The typical range trading on the 4-hour chart continues. The weekly chart RSI is floating in neutral territory. However, there is a bearish cross forming on the daily chart’s Slow Stochastic indicating a bearish correction might take place in the nearest future. Going short might be a wise choice.

USD/CHF

The pair has been range-trading for a while now, with no specific direction. The Daily chart’s Slow Stochastic providing us with mixed signals. The 4 hour charts do not provide a clear direction as well. Waiting for a clearer sign on the hourlies chart might be a good strategy today.

The Wild Card

Gold

Gold prices are once again dropping, and it is currently traded around $1107.45 an ounce. And now, the 8-hour chart’s RSI is giving bullish signals, indicating that gold prices might go up. This might give forex traders a great opportunity to enter a very popular trend.

Economic News USD – USD Firm against EUR; Declining vs. AUD and CAD The U.S. Dollar remained strong against the Pound and the Euro yesterday. Credit downgrade warnings by rating agencies regarding some European countries such as Greece, Portugal and the UK continued to worry investors. The EUR/USD traded low for most of the day, as a result. Currently the pair is trading at 1.3600. The USD did decline against the Australian Dollar and the Canadian Dollar, however. These pairs are currently trading at 0.9154 and 1.0267 respectively. Wholesale Inventories is expected to be published later today. Although, this is not a significant parameter, investors will look at the result as a sign of the U.S. fiscal health. A lower than expected inventories reading might boost the USD higher against the other major currencies. The most anticipated data from the U.S. will be published on Friday: Retails Sales, and the University of Michigan (UoM) consumer confidence survey. Traders are advised to build their positions tomorrow and Thursday while trade is still relatively calm. EUR – Rating Agencies Continue to Add Pressure to EUR The EUR continued to be influenced by debt worries. The currency is slowly declining against the Yen and the USD. Although during trading it managed to visit the green territory, both Monday and Tuesday it failed to finish higher against the JPY or the greenback. The EUR/USD is trading in a narrow range around 1.3600. Appetite for risk might benefit the EUR in the coming trading days if data from Europe published today and tomorrow prove that the economy is indeed expanding. No significant data was published yesterday. Today, better than expected news from the UK and Germany should send the EUR higher against safe haven currencies such as the USD and JPY. Manufacturing Production from the UK is expected to rise 0.3%, German Final CPI is forecasted to rise 0.2% and the regional Trade Balance forecast stands at a potential 16.4B surplus. JPY – Yen Slides as Risk Appetite Grows The JPY continued its bullish movement against the EUR and GBP yesterday; although, toward the end of trading both currencies pared some of their losses. Currently the pairs are trading at 122.39 and 134.69 respectively. The Yen declined significantly against the AUD, which is currently trading at 82.40. It is also declining against the CAD, currently trading at 87.65. Good economic data from china or the U.S., or continued strength in commodities, should support this most recent trend. Core Machinery data published last night in Japan fell 3.7%. The data is a leading indicator of corporate capital spending. The fall in machinery orders is evidence for a slow economic growth. The publication may lead the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to issue further economic easing programs to increase demand by Japanese consumers, and push the economy higher. OIL – Crude Oil Prices Declined Yesterday as Investors Closed on Profits Crude Oil slightly declined during yesterday’s trading, but remained above $80 a barrel. Currently, Crude Oil is trading at $81.57, and it seems to be continuing its bullish trend since mid-February. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) published a report yesterday forecasting that the price of oil should climb to $85 a barrel in the near future. They also projected that the price should remain above $80 a barrel this spring. Later on today, the U.S. EIA is expected to publish Crude Oil Inventories, forecasted to grow by 1.9M barrels. Any lower figure should boost the price even higher. In recent weeks, data came above forecasts, but it failed to influence the price. It seems that the price of oil could remain above $80 a barrel. However, a serious boost in price should be supported by strong fundamental data. Better than expected U.S. Retail Sales to be published on Friday might push the price toward $85. EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF AUD/USD EUR/GBP Daily Trend Weekly Trend Resistance 1.3740 1.5170 90.75 1.0850 0.9250 0.9175 1.3695 1.5115 90.50 1.0825 0.9200 0.9150 1.3650 1.5030 90.20 1.0800 0.9165 0.9105 Support 1.3575 1.4935 89.70 1.0730 0.9110 0.9045 1.3540 1.4880 89.50 1.0685 0.9080 0.9015 1.3500 1.4785 89.25 1.0670 0.9055 0.8980 Technical News EUR/USD The 4-hour chart is showing that the pair is still floating within its bearish channel. However, the RSI on the 4H chart is bellow the 30 line, indicating that the market is oversold. The Slow Stochastic is also showing a fresh bullish cross, suggesting that an upward move is imminent. Going long with tight stops appears to be preferable. GBP/USD The pair is in the middle of a strong downtrend, and is testing fresh lows on a daily basis. The very important key support level of 1.4935 has been breached and the pair is likely to continue is bearish trend. Next target price might be around 1.4800 USD/JPY For the past few days the pair has been floating around 90.00 with no apparent breach. Now, however, new signs for a bearish move are given in the form of a bearish cross on the Slow Stochastic of both the daily and the hourly charts. Traders are advised to wait for the break and swing. USD/CHF The pair continues to provide exclusive bullish signals, and is now traded around the 1.0750 level. All oscillators on the daily chart are pointing up and further bullishness will probably take place, with potential target price of 1.0825. The Wild Card Silver The 4H chart’s Bollinger Bands appear to be tightening on this commodity as prices prepare for a volatile jump. With bearish crosses on the hourly and daily Slow Stochastic, as well as an over-bought indication on the 4-hour RSI, the next major movement may indeed be in a downward direction. Forex traders involved in commodity trading can take advantage of this knowledge by going short on Silver and riding out what appears to be building up to be a sharp movement in price.

Economic News

USD – Dollar Trading Lower as Investors Regain Confidence in Euro

Following last Friday’s less-than-inspiring Non-Farm Payrolls data, the US Dollar has entered what appears to be a diverse array of price movements. Against the EUR and CHF, the greenback has entered a range-trading pattern with distinct highs and lows. The EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.3615, down from yesterday’s 1.3680. Against the Yen, the Dollar has started coming back down from last week’s jump. After reaching upwards of 90.60, the pair now trades just above the 90.00 price level.

The USD has taken a downturn lately, following Friday’s modest rise. The easing of debt concerns in Greece has a number of forex market participants buying back into the Euro. Whether Europe can sustain this bullish momentum is yet to be seen, but so far the regional currencies appear to be holding their gains.

Since today’s economic calendar will be void of any news from the United States, the chances of any major market corrections today are slim. However, if we were to correlate the potential movement of Crude Oil with the price of the EUR/USD, there is a chance that we could see some Dollar strengthening as the technical indicators are showing a potential downward move in Crude Oil later today.

EUR – EUR Improving, but Momentum may be Lost with Light News Week

The EUR appears to have leveled off against the majority of its currency rivals. Moderate downturns were experienced against the CAD and AUD, however, with price dips of 60 and 40 pips, respectively. Versus its primary counterpart, the US Dollar, the EUR was trading bearish overall on the day near the price level of 1.3615, down from 1.3700 seen earlier in the trading day. The EUR/USD pair, moreover, appears to be range trading between 1.3450 and 1.3730.

Some of the latest price movements in the EUR have reflected a growing sense of optimism in the Euro-Zone, given the mild easing of debt concerns in Greece. Switzerland also appears to be having a positive effect on the region with a recent report which showed retail sales climbing much higher than forecast last month. Investor confidence in the region also appears to have risen slightly better than was anticipated.

Overall, if the 16-nation Euro-Zone economy continues to provide data which supports the notion of improving economic sentiment, there is a strong chance the EUR will see increasingly strong signals of reversing last month’s losses. However, since we are expecting a light news day, the chances of this happening today are slim. Additionally, this entire week appears to be light on European market news and as such could mean that the EUR will not be in the driver’s seat of its price movements until next week.

JPY – JPY Paring Friday’s Losses

After experiencing a sharp decline against all of its major counterparts on Friday, the JPY now appears to be regaining strength in today’s early trading hours. So far the Yen has climbed 185 pips against the British Pound and is currently trading at the 135.15 price mark. Against the USD the JPY currently sits just above the 90.00 price level but appears to be facing a significant support line at that price.

With a number of machinery and industrial figures being published by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) today, there is a chance that the JPY will witness a higher-than-usual level of volatility in trading later in the afternoon. Significant price barriers are being touched on almost every JPY pair. If a breach occurs, the JPY could jump to completely pare the losses made last Friday. But if the JPY cannot gain the necessary momentum, there could be a downturn on the way.

Crude Oil – Crude Oil Testing Significant Price Barrier

Oil prices have continued to rise following last week’s sudden surge beyond the $80 price mark. A number of analysts have estimated that this rise may continue given the upcoming onset of the driving season in the United States and subsequent jump in gasoline consumption. However, some have begun anticipating a downward turn given the conclusion of the colder winter months and impending drop in heating oil consumption.

With this contradictory information, what we can deduce is that the $81.50 price mark represents a significant psychological barrier. Should Crude Oil prices break beyond this resistance line, there’s a chance that the rising price could continue. If it fails to break through, on the other hand, commodity traders should see oil prices declining back towards the $80 price mark before the middle of the week.

EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	AUD/USD	EUR/GBP
Daily Trend
Weekly Trend
Resistance	1.3715	1.5120	90.95	1.0845	0.9190	0.9165
	1.3680	1.5085	90.60	1.0810	0.9155	0.9130
	1.3650	1.5045	90.30	1.0780	0.9125	0.9100
Support	1.3580	1.4980	89.65	1.0710	0.9060	0.9035
	1.3550	1.4950	89.30	1.0680	0.9030	0.9000
	1.3515	1.4915	89.00	1.0650	0.9000	0.8960

Technical News

EUR/USD

While most indicators for the pair are floating in neutral territory, a modest upward correction may take place today as the 2 hour chart RSI is floating near the oversold territory and a bullish cross is evident on the 4 hour chart’s Slow Stochastic. Going long with tight stops may be advised for today.

GBP/USD

The pair may be seeing a bullish correction today as the hourly, 2 hour and daily RSI are floating in the oversold territory indicating an upcoming upward movement. Furthermore a bullish cross is evident on the 4 hour and 2 hour charts’ Slow Stochastic. Going long for the day may be a good option.

USD/JPY

The pair seems to be exhibiting mixed signals at the moment with the 4 hour and 8 hour charts’ RSI floating in the overbought territory, while the hourly and 2 hour RSI floating in the oversold territory. Furthermore, a bullish cross is evident on the 2 hour chart’s Slow Stochastic, while a bearish cross is evident on the daily chart’s Slow Stochastic. Waiting on a clearer direction for the pair may be advised for today.

USD/CHF

The pair seems to be range trading at the moment, with most indicators floating in neutral territory. A slight bearish correction might take place, however, as a bearish cross is evident on the 4 hour chart’s Slow stochastic and the 2 hour RSI is floating near the overbought territory, indicating and impending downward movement. Going short with tight stops may be advised for today.

The Wild Card

GBP/AUD

The pair’s recent downward trend may be seeing some correction today as the hourly, 2 hour, 4 hour and daily RSI are floating in the oversold territory and a bullish cross is evident on the hourly and 2 hour charts’ Slow Stochastic. A breach of the lower Bollinger Band is also evident on the 4 hour chart. Forex traders are advised to go long for today.

Economic News

USD – Non-Farm Payrolls Data Fail to Shake the Dollar

The Dollar saw a relatively calm trading session against the major currencies during the past week. The Dollar retained the 1.3650 level against the Euro and the 1.5100 level against the Pound. The Dollar only saw a rising trend against the Yen, and the USD/JPY pair is now traded above the 90.00 level.

The Dollar’s steady rates against the majors came mainly as a result of the solid employment data from the U.S. The Non-Farm Payrolls dropped by 36,000 as the Unemployment Rate was held at 9.7%. Both results have beaten forecasts, yet failed to have a significant impact on the market. The results didn’t proove that the employment condition in the U.S. is improving as there were more unemployed individuals in February than in January. However the results were better-than-forecasted and showed that the employment’s deterioration was halted as the unemployment rate has reached below 10.0% for two consecutive months.

As for the week ahead, many interesting economic publications are expected from the U.S. Traders are advised to pay special attention to the Trade Balance, the weekly Unemployment Claims, the Retails Sales and the Consumer Sentiment reports. The recent peaceful trading of the Dollar shows that investors are waiting for clearer signs whether the U.S. economy is truly recovered or is the more negative data expected. This week’s leading publications are likely to try and answer this question – and the Dollar will be largely affected as a result.

EUR – Euro Keeps Steady Rates against the Majors

The Euro kept a steady rate against the Dollar and the Pound during last week’s trading session. The Euro slid at the beginning of last week vs. the Dollar, yet managed to correct the losses before the weekend. The Euro also saw a bullish trend against the Yen and the EUR/JPY pair is trading around the 123.50 level.

The Euro kept steady rates against most of the major currencies due to two main reasons. The first reason is the Greece debt issue. The Euro-Zone did not publish a rescue-plan for Greece till now, however many political leaders, such as the French President Nicolas Sarkozy have stated that the Euro-Zone will be ready to help Greece if its financial problems worsened. This has managed to halt the Euro’s freefall from the past month. In addition, the economic data from the Euro-Zone showed that the economies are stabilizing. The German Retails Sales remained unchanged from December and the European Gross Domestic Product rose by merely 0.1% in the last quarter. This also supported the steady rates of the Euro.

Looking ahead to this week, traders are advised to follow every update regarding the Greece debt crisis as this seems to set the tone for the trading of the Euro in the near future. If the Euro-Zone will publish a rescue plan, the Euro is likely to be boosted as a result. However, indications that the Greek economic condition is worsening could weaken the Euro if there is no concrete rescue plan offered by the Euro-Zone. Traders should also follow the leading economic publications from Germany and France as they also have large impact over the Euro.

JPY – Yen Slides as Risk Appetite Grows

The Yen dropped against all the major currencies during Friday’s trading session. After a week of quiet trading, the Yen dropped 100 pips against the Dollar and about 200 pips against the Euro since Friday.

It appears that the U.S. Payrolls data from Friday, which delivered better-than-expected figures, has weakened the Yen against the major currencies. The end results have increased demand for higher-yielding assets on bets that the global economy is recovering. In addition, speculations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) would further loosen its monetary policy to avoid deflationary pressure in the economy also weakened the Yen. Traders should also take under consideration that one of the BoJ’s goals is to see a weak Yen in the attempt to support Japanese exports.

As for this week, traders should focus on two leading publications from the Japanese economy. Analysts have forecasted that the Core Machinery Orders have dropped by 3.6% during January, following a 20% in December. If the end result will be similar, the Yen is likely to weaken as a result. Traders should also follow the Final Gross Domestic Product (GDP) release on Wednesday night. Expectations are for a 1.0% rise in the last quarter. Such a result will indicate that the Japanese economy is recovering and is likely to support the Yen.

Oil – Crude Oil Prices Continue to Rise

Prices of Crude Oil rose at a steady rate during last week’s trading session. With the beginning of last week, crude oil was traded for about $78.00 a barrel. At the moment, crude is traded for close to $82 a barrel.

Crude Oil is rising on speculations that the global economic recovery in addition to supply restrictions by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will increase demand for oil. The better-than-expected Non-Farm Employment data from the U.S. economy also supported Crude Oil, as this suggested that the American economy is indeed recovering, as unemployment is stabilizing.

As for this week, traders should follow the major economic news from the U.S. and the Euro-Zone as those seem to have the largest impact on Oil prices. In addition, traders should also follow the U.S. Crude Oil Inventories on Wednesday, as this report tends to have an instant impact on the market.

EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	AUD/USD	EUR/GBP
Daily Trend
Weekly Trend
Resistance	1.3785	1.5265	91.40	1.0795	0.9210	0.9110
	1.3750	1.5230	91.05	1.0760	0.9180	0.9090
	1.3720	1.5200	90.75	1.0730	0.9150	0.9055
Support	1.3650	1.5130	90.10	1.0660	0.9080	0.8990
	1.3620	1.5100	89.80	1.0630	0.9050	0.8960
	1.3585	1.5070	89.50	1.0600	0.9015	0.8925

Technical News

EUR/USD

The hourly and 2 hour charts’ RSI are floating in the overbought territory with the hourly, 2 hour and 4 hour charts’ Slow Stochastic exhibiting a bearish cross. Going short with tight stops for the day may be advised.

GBP/USD

The hourly, 2 hour and 8 hour charts’ RSI are floating in the overbought territory with the 4 hour chart’s Slow Stochastic exhibiting a bearish cross. Going short for the day may be advised.

USD/JPY

The 2 hour, 4 hour and 8 hour charts’ RSI is floating in the overbought territory, while a breach of the upper Bollinger Band is evident on the 8 hour chart. Furthermore, a bearish cross is evident on the 4 hour and 8 hour charts’ Slow Stochastic. Going short for the day may be advised.

USD/CHF

A bullish cross is evident on the 2 hour and 4 hour charts’ Slow Stochastic with the 2 hour with the hourly and 2 hour RSI floating in the oversold territory. Going long for the day may be advised.

The Wild Card

AUD/JPY

The pair’s 2 hour, 4 hour and 8 hour RSI are floating in the overbought territory. A breach of the upper Bollinger Band is evident on the 4 hour and 8 hour charts, while a bearish cross is evident on the 4 hour and 8 hour charts’ Slow Stochastic. Forex traders may be advised to go short for the day.

Economic News

USD – Dollar Pulls Back on Greek Cuts

The U.S. dollar dropped versus the EUR and other major currencies Wednesday as Greece outlined tax changes and budget cuts to help reduce its deficit, easing concerns about a debt-fueled crisis and reducing the relative appeal of the U.S. currency.

The Dollar also turned lower versus the Japanese currency, slipping 0.4% to buy 88.47 yen. The U.S dollar may fall for a 3rd day against the JPY on speculation job losses in the U.S. will encourage the Fed to keep borrowing costs unchanged.

The USD fell for a 2nd day against the EUR as traders increased bets the Federal Reserve will keep its target interest rate near zero to sustain a recovery in the world’s biggest economy. The U.S. currency weakened after Fed Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said borrowing costs should remain low until the economy picks up, which won’t happen for some time.

EUR – The EUR at 2 Week High as Greece Debt Concern Ease

The EUR was firmer on Thursday, as investors encouraged by Greece’s fresh austerity measures to reduce its deficit cut some of the record short positions in the single currency. Greece announced plans for a further $6.5 billion in pay cuts and tax hikes to reduce its deficit, easing worries about the country’s debt crisis.

The European currency traded near a 2 week high against the U.S dollar on easing concerns the European Union’s biggest budget gap will derail a regional recovery after Greece announced tax increases and deeper spending cuts. The EUR traded at $1.3703 from $1.3697 yesterday when it reached $1.3736, the strongest since Feb. 17

However, gains in the EUR were tempered on speculation the European Central Bank will maintain credit easing measures at a policy meeting today. Economists expect the ECB to keep the benchmark rate at 1% as in previous months.

JPY – Yen Advances to 2 Month High vs. Dollar

The Japanese yen climbed against the U.S dollar amid speculation Japanese companies were buying the currency. The yen strengthened to 88.48 versus the U.S. currency, the highest level since Dec. 14, from 88.85 yesterday.

The Japanese currency rose to its highest in more than 2 months against the greenback on Wednesday as investors cut long positions versus other currencies. Investors fret about a stronger yen because it eats into exporter profits when repatriated.

OIL – Oil Trades above $80 on Economic Hopes

Crude oil prices gained more than 1% to close above $80 a barrel Wednesday, taking direction from a dropping U.S. dollar and data showing fewer U.S. job losses, which overshadowed a surprisingly high increase in crude-oil stockpiles. Wednesday marked the first day since Jan. 12 that the most active contract has hit $81 intraday, and the first day in a week that the contract has closed at or above the $80 level.

For the past several weeks, Crude prices have been unable to get much past $80 a barrel, hemmed in by concerns over supplies outstripping fragile demand. Weekly inventory data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) did little to assuage those concerns. In keeping with a trend reported by industry group American Petroleum Institute late Tuesday, the EIA showed a bigger increase in crude-oil stockpiles than expected. Analysts said that with the fundamentals weak and consistent resistance above the $80 level, Oil may start to trade lower over the next few days.

EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	AUD/USD	EUR/GBP
Daily Trend
Weekly Trend
Resistance	1.3755	1.5150	89.20	1.0770	0.9095	0.9155
	1.3735	1.5130	89.00	1.0750	0.9075	0.9135
	1.3705	1.5100	88.70	1.0720	0.9045	0.9105
Support	1.3645	1.5040	88.10	1.0660	0.8985	0.9045
	1.3615	1.5010	87.80	1.0630	0.8955	0.9015
	1.3595	1.4990	87.60	1.0610	0.8935	0.8995

Technical News

EUR/USD

The daily chart is showing mixed signals with its RSI fluctuating at the neutral territory. However, there is an impending bearish cross forming on the 4-hour chart’s MACD indicating a bearish correction might take place in the nearest future. When the downwards breach occurs, going short with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD has gone increasingly bullish in the past 2 days, and currently stands at the 1.5070 level. The daily chart’s RSI supports this currency cross to rise further today. However, the 4-hour chart’s Stochastic Slow signals that a bearish reversal might take place today. Entering the pair when the signs are clearer seems to be the wise choice today.

USD/JPY

The price of this pair appears to be floating in the over-sold territory on the 4-hour chart’s RSI indicating a downward correction may be imminent. The downward direction on the daily chart RSI also supports this notion. Going long might be a wise choice.

USD/CHF

The pair has been range-trading for a while now, with no specific direction. The Daily chart’s Slow Stochastic providing us with mixed signals. The 4 hour charts do not provide a clear direction as well. Waiting for a clearer sign on the hourlies chart might be a good strategy today.

The Wild Card

Silver

Silver prices rose significantly in the last week and peaked at $17.10 an ounce. However, the 8- charts’ RSI is floating in an overbought territory suggesting that a recent upwards trend is loosing steam and a bearish correction is impending. This might be a good opportunity for forex traders to enter the trend at a very early stage.

Economic News

USD – USD Declines on Interest Rate Hike Outlook

The USD came under pressure yesterday as Greece is expected to announce new budget cuts. The greenback was down most notably against the CAD and AUD on interest rate hike outlook for the two currencies. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its benchmark rate for the fourth time, as expected, by a quarter of a percentage point, to 4.0% and, while the Bank of Canada left the interest rate unchanged, an exceptionally hawkish statement boosted expectations of a sooner than expected rate hike.

The Dollar index fell to 80.512, from 80.753 in late North American trading Monday. The Aussie recently rose 0.4% to 90.36 U.S. cents. The Dollar slid 0.5% against the Japanese Yen, to buy 88.77 Yen.

Looking ahead to today traders are advised to follow the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI report due to be released at 15:00 GMT as well as the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change estimate due to be released at 13:15 GMT. The Dollar’s level will be determined this week by Greek developments on the one hand and vital economic data from the U.S on the other.

EUR – EUR Rises on Expected Greek Budget Cuts

The EUR rose from a 9-month low against the Dollar as Greece prepared to unveil its new budget cuts, fueling optimism of an imminent solution to its debt crisis. The Greek government will announce as much as 4.8 billion Euros ($6.5 Billion) of additional spending cuts today ahead of a March 16 deadline.

The EUR climbed to $1.3633 in today’s early trading from $1.3615 in New York yesterday when it dropped to $1.3436, the weakest since May 18. The currency traded at 120.82 yen from 120.96 yen. The British pound recovered some losses yesterday to currently trade at 1.5052 USD. It had fallen sharply Monday amid concerns over potential changes in leadership.

Along with any development from Greece, traders are advised to follow the release of the British Services PMI at 9:30 GMT, a better than expected result might help push the Pound further up.

JPY – JPY at 11-Week High versus USD

The Yen climbed to an 11-week high against the Dollar on speculation Japanese companies will bring home earnings before the nation’s fiscal year that ends this month. Japan’s currency advanced versus 14 of its 16 major counterparts ahead of the end of Japan’s fiscal year March 31.

Under the new tax provisions Japanese companies are exempt from taxes on repatriated profits. The means that the JPY is expected to stay strong as Japanese investors will likely to continue buying the currency.

Crude Oil – Crude Oil Struggles to Stay above $80 a Barrel

Crude Oil traded near $80 a barrel, gaining 1.3% yesterday as equity markets gained on speculation that the European Union will bail out Greece while the nation is expected to unveil new budget cuts. Oil prices also increased as the Dollar weakened against the EUR, increasing demand for commodities as an alternative investment. Furthermore, a report form the American Petroleum Institute showed that stockpiles of distillate fuel dropped 4.07 million barrels last week.

Today traders should follow the release of the Crude Oil inventories data at 15:30 GMT. Stockpiles are expected to drop to 1.4M from 3.0M last week, a better than expected result might help solidify oil’s price above $80 a barrel.

EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	AUD/USD	EUR/GBP
Daily Trend
Weekly Trend
Resistance	1.3755	1.5150	89.80	1.0825	0.9125	0.9150
	1.3715	1.5115	89.50	1.0790	0.9100	0.9125
	1.3680	1.5080	89.15	1.0765	0.9075	0.9100
Support	1.3605	1.5000	88.50	1.0700	0.9000	0.9050
	1.3575	1.4970	88.15	1.0670	0.8975	0.9025
	1.3540	1.4940	87.85	1.0635	0.8950	0.9000

Technical News

EUR/USD

After this morning’s upward movement, the EUR/USD pair now appears poised for a downward correction. The pair appears to be range trading between 1.3650 and 1.3450. The hourly RSI shows the price as over-bought and the 4-hour Stochastic (slow) has what appears to be a bearish cross. Going short may be today’s best tactic.

GBP/USD

The price of this pair appears to be floating in the over-bought territory on the hourly RSI, suggesting short-term downward pressure. However, the daily RSI has the pair floating deep within the over-sold territory, indicating that the pair may in fact be facing strong upward pressure. As a result, there is a chance this pair will correct downward slightly in the morning hours, but longer-term direction may in fact be upward.

USD/JPY

This pair has dropped to an 11-week low today and as a result a few indications are pointing to an upward correction. The daily Stochastic (slow) shows a fresh bullish cross and an upward moving indicator, suggesting that the price of this pair may see upward momentum gaining in today’s trading. Going long with tight stops might not be a bad idea.

USD/CHF

This pair seems to be fluctuating within a very distinct bullish channel on the 4-hour chart. As the last movement was in a downward direction, most indicators are now showing an impending bullish move. The 4-hour Stochastic (slow) shows a fresh bullish cross, which supports this notion. Going long appears to be today’s preferable strategy.

The Wild Card

AUD/NZD

This pair is showing very distinct indications for forex traders to take advantage of in today’s trading. The 4-hour Stochastic (slow) is showing 2 recent bearish crosses, and the price on the 4-hour RSI is floating deep within the over-bought territory. The daily chart also shows the price in the over-bought zone. There appears to be strong downward pressure on this pair. Going short and riding out this correction could prove to be very profitable today.